Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Big rain and HUGE WSW windswell on the way!

Update on all the craziness about to land on SoCal in the next week!  Wednesday will start off with waist high surf but later in the day we’ll see a new NW groundswell make its way to our shores Thursday.  Surf will pick up overnight to shoulder/HH with some HH+ standouts at the better winter breaks.  Conditions will already get a little dicey with mild overnight rain and ESE winds picking up overnight.  That swell peaks through the night and into Friday morning.  As it tapers off the weather pretty much takes over for the rest of the weekend and the skies unleash on Southern California giving us some much needed rain…and lots of it!  Bottom line is…rain, wind, rain, wind and more rain for Friday and Saturday.  As far as surf goes the NW groundswell tapers off through the day Friday but the next big storm that’s getting sucked up into us from the south (the good ol’ Pineapple Express) is going to bring a huge WSW windswell.  Saturday waves start in the shoulder/HH range and quickly increase into the 3-4’ overhead range by nightfall.  

Sunday the swell peaks with DOH and DOH+ waves along our coast.  Remember this will be out of the WSW so you’re looking at summer breaks for the most direct swell but west and north facing beaches will see plenty of their share as well.  As the swell progresses there will be more west in it at it moves north.  That means more large close out sets at the west facing beaches.  Big surf remains the story all day but decreases after the peak Sunday morning. We’re still looking at OH surf by nightfall.  Monday morning look for HH swell but dropping quickly through the day and back down to waist/chest high by nightfall.  Tuesday morning is looking about the same but a nice new WNW groundswell looks to be filling in late Tuesday with some long period and inconsistent swell.  Wednesday is going to see some larger surf with size gradually picking up through the day to chest/shoulder high.  We may see more inclement weather however so we’ll have to watch that and see how that all pans out next week.

Weather is really the big driver this weekend.  Three waves of storms will make landfall over the next 5 days.  The first band arrives Wed night with late rain overnight and into Thursday morning.  Light ESE winds come along with that one so conditions should still be surfable especially at some of the breaks that hold those nice S winds.  Friday is D-Day! That second band of rain moves in with heavy rain starting in the pre-dawn hours and gusting winds through the day in the 25-30mph range and gusts to 40mph.  Really heavy rain all day will be accompanied by the occasional thunderstorm.  Probably a good day to buy your Netflix membership and invest heavily in popcorn and hot chocolate!   More heavy rain through the night and for most of Saturday with slightly calmer winds but still plenty gusty.  The third wave of rain is much lighter showers Saturday evening and through Sunday. Winds back way down and blow moderately out of the east.  Tough to say when conditions will be surfable after all those gusty winds but Sunday afternoon might be a good call.  Forecast looks like S winds for the start of the work week.  Light overnight Sunday and into Monday before picking up in the late morning and through the night.   

Water temps in the high 50s/low 60s.  New moon Saturday will be causing some extreme tides.  Big highs in the early morning and super drained out lows in the early afternoon before heading back up for the late evening push.  Look for flooding in the low lying areas on Sat and Sun as that huge swell moves in and morning high tide pushes.
So, while the best days are looking like early Thursday, midday Sunday and next Monday morning please remember that the water quality will be extremely questionable.  Waves will also be quite large so be smart and surf away from lagoon/river mouths and storm drains and in size that fits your ability. 

Stay wet San Diego!

Tides for La Jolla (Scripps Institution Wharf) starting with February 26, 2014.
Day        High      Tide  Height   Sunrise    Moon  Time      % Moon
           /Low      Time    Feet    Sunset                    Visible

W   26      Low  12:13 AM     1.5   6:20 AM    Rise  4:03 AM      16
    26     High   6:30 AM     5.8   5:44 PM     Set  3:10 PM
    26      Low   1:19 PM    -1.2
    26     High   7:41 PM     4.3

Th  27      Low   1:05 AM     0.9   6:19 AM    Rise  4:51 AM      8
    27     High   7:19 AM     6.1   5:45 PM     Set  4:18 PM
    27      Low   1:58 PM    -1.4
    27     High   8:17 PM     4.8

F   28      Low   1:52 AM     0.4   6:18 AM    Rise  5:35 AM      3
    28     High   8:06 AM     6.2   5:45 PM     Set  5:27 PM
    28      Low   2:35 PM    -1.4
    28     High   8:53 PM     5.1

Sa   1      Low   2:38 AM     0.0   6:17 AM    Rise  6:17 AM      0
     1     High   8:51 AM     6.0   5:46 PM     Set  6:34 PM
     1      Low   3:12 PM    -1.1
     1     High   9:29 PM     5.3

Su   2      Low   3:24 AM    -0.1   6:15 AM    Rise  6:57 AM      0
     2     High   9:36 AM     5.5   5:47 PM     Set  7:40 PM
     2      Low   3:48 PM    -0.7
     2     High  10:06 PM     5.3

Monday, February 24, 2014

Huge surf and intense rain on the way!

Super quickie short forecast with the full report tomorrow...

Small (fluctuating with the tide) waist high surf for the next few days thru Wednesday.  Then we'll see some new WNW groundswell fill in Thursday and Friday along with the first really big storm in the past few years. Winds will pickup and blow onshore while the head high surf rolls in all day Thursday and into Friday. The bad news is that the Mother Lode of rain will unleash starting Friday in the wee hours of the morning.  Expect dumping rain all day with gusty onshore winds. Weather forecasts are calling for 1-1.5" of rain between 4am and 10pm. Yuck!  The surf picks up even more late Friday and early Saturday with OH to 2-3' OH but the wind picks up too with gusts forecasted at 30-35mph. That's ugly!  Another band of rain comes through Saturday late afternoon and into Sunday. Surf really picks up and peaks Sunday midday with WSW surf in the double overhead range.  The good news is that the winds will have backed down significantly so things will be cleaning up. We'll still see some moderate SW winds though so conditions will be better but still questionable.

Some higher tide swings will make for some really interesting conditions for the low lying areas around town as that DOH surf shows up.  Much cooler air temps as well!

It'll see how thing progress over the next 24 hrs and update things tomorrow.

All for now...
Stay wet San Diego! 


Monday, February 17, 2014

More fun medium sized surf and sun!

Happy President’s Day!  Tuesday we’ve got a nice NW short period ground swell filling in with some shorter period NW windswell on top of it.  We’ll see fun waves in the chest/shoulder high range with some HH waves at the better winter spots.  Surf should be fairly consistent too so lots of waves to share!  Wednesday things taper off a bit to waist/chest high and then bump up again Thursday as a smaller WNW shorter period swell moves in for more waist high waves.  A slightly bigger NW groundswell fills in Friday. This one will be fairly consistent too but short lived as we really only see chest high waves for the day. Early Saturday things quiet down with waist high waves but it looks like we’re going to start seeing some SW groundswell late Saturday and into Sunday.  The angle of this swell is aimed a bit more at Mexico but we should see some waist/chest high waves at the better summer spots for Sunday and early Monday.  Smaller surf for Tuesday but it looks like a long period WNW groundswell should be showing up around Wed or so.  The high pressure system seems to be kicking all the storms fairly north of us and out of our swell window early so we’ll have to watch the models to see if that swell makes it to us.  Cross your fingers!

Unfortunately, it looks like more fantastic sunny warm weather for us here in So Cal. Slightly cooler to start the week with air temps in the low 60s along the coast a bit more clod coverage but things should clear up by midweek and we should see temps back up into the mid-70s by the end of the week.  No rain in sight for the next 10 days at least!  Mild winds too with light E winds this evening and light SW winds during the day thru Thurs before turning more northerly.  Water temps are in the high 50s/low60s. Cooler temps seem to be south of Pt. Loma.  Tides are moving just enough to give us a little push every day.  For the next few days look for a late morning high tide push going out to a medium low just before sunset. 

Looks like some fun surf ahead of us!
Stay wet San Diego!

My son and I having a little paddle adventure in the kelp beds on Friday.

Tides for La Jolla (Scripps Institution Wharf) starting with February 18, 2014.

Day        High      Tide  Height   Sunrise    Moon  Time      % Moon
           /Low      Time    Feet    Sunset                    Visible
Tu  18      Low   4:39 AM     1.0   6:29 AM     Set  8:18 AM      92
    18     High  10:37 AM     4.2   5:37 PM    Rise  9:20 PM
    18      Low   4:45 PM     0.5
    18     High  11:14 PM     4.5
W   19      Low   5:25 AM     1.1   6:28 AM     Set  8:53 AM      86
    19     High  11:18 AM     3.8   5:38 PM    Rise 10:18 PM
    19      Low   5:11 PM     1.0
    19     High  11:50 PM     4.5
Th  20      Low   6:25 AM     1.2   6:27 AM     Set  9:32 AM      78
    20     High  12:14 PM     3.1   5:39 PM    Rise 11:17 PM
    20      Low   5:42 PM     1.4
F   21     High  12:38 AM     4.5   6:26 AM     Set 10:15 AM      69
    21      Low   7:48 AM     1.2   5:40 PM
    21     High   1:44 PM     2.7
    21      Low   6:27 PM     1.8
Sa  22     High   1:47 AM     4.5   6:25 AM    Rise 12:17 AM      59
    22      Low   9:26 AM     0.9   5:40 PM     Set 11:03 AM
    22     High   3:51 PM     2.6
    22      Low   7:58 PM     2.2

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Medium/small size surf but good conditions

Hola!  We’re looking at the back end of the latest WNW for Wednesday.  Some waist high surf with the rare chest high set to start the day with size diminishing through the day.  The good news is that there’s another WNW shorter period groundswell on the way so Thursday looks to have some more fun consistent surf in the waist/chest high range for most of the day.  Friday sees smaller shorter period surf in the waist high range and the Saturday is looking pretty small with knee/thigh high surf.  Sunday picks up a bit with some slightly disorganized NW but it leads into a series of NW groundswells as we enter into Monday and Tuesday.  Size Monday bumps back up into the waist high range for the morning sessions and picking up through the day.  Look for some chest/shoulder high waves by the afternoon and the occasional HH sets in the southern end of the county and at the best north facing spots.  A secondary swell adds energy to the mix and the swells peaks mid-morning on Tuesday with those shoulder/HH waves and backs off through the day.  Slightly more angle on this swell so the farther south you go you’ll definitely see some of the larger surf.  Surf for Wed is back down into the waist/chest zone with a few days before the next good groundswell shows up. Models show a nice storm brewing but also the possibilities of some showers towards the end of next week.  We shall see!

We’re looking at mostly sunny skies Wed after the dense fog burns off mid-morning.  More sunny skies and air temps in the low to mid 70s for the next 5 days through the weekend.  A high pressure system will keep any chance of showers at bay for at least a solid week if not two. Our next chance of showers is next Thursday/Fri but we’ll have to see what that ridge of high pressure does.  Pretty light winds for the next 5-6 days.  Should make for some pretty clean surfing conditions.  Water temps are in the high 50s/low 60s around town.  Tides are high in the early morning and then drain out for a mid-afternoon negative tide before heading back up for early nighttime high tide.

Overall it looks like we’ll see some fun shorter period surf with good conditions for the next week.  Some larger surf towards the beginning of next week. 

Stay wet San Diego!

Tides for La Jolla (Scripps Institution Wharf) starting with February 12, 2014.

Day        High      Tide  Height   Sunrise    Moon  Time      % Moon
           /Low      Time    Feet    Sunset                    Visible
W   12      Low   1:17 AM     1.6   6:35 AM     Set  4:52 AM      91
    12     High   7:26 AM     5.3   5:32 PM    Rise  3:52 PM
    12      Low   2:14 PM    -0.5
    12     High   8:36 PM     4.0
Th  13      Low   1:49 AM     1.4   6:34 AM     Set  5:29 AM      95
    13     High   7:58 AM     5.4   5:33 PM    Rise  4:45 PM
    13      Low   2:39 PM    -0.6
    13     High   8:59 PM     4.1
F   14      Low   2:21 AM     1.2   6:33 AM     Set  6:05 AM      98
    14     High   8:29 AM     5.4   5:34 PM    Rise  5:39 PM
    14      Low   3:04 PM    -0.5
    14     High   9:23 PM     4.2
Sa  15      Low   2:53 AM     1.1   6:32 AM     Set  6:38 AM      99
    15     High   8:59 AM     5.3   5:34 PM    Rise  6:33 PM
    15      Low   3:29 PM    -0.4
    15     High   9:49 PM     4.3
Su  16      Low   3:26 AM     1.0   6:31 AM     Set  7:11 AM      99
    16     High   9:30 AM     5.1   5:35 PM    Rise  7:28 PM
    16      Low   3:54 PM    -0.2
    16     High  10:15 PM     4.4

Thursday, February 6, 2014

Bit of weather then some smaller fun surf

YIKERS!  We finally have rain but very little surf in the next week.  We’ve got messy wind blown W swell right now in the knee/thigh high range thru Friday.  More wind and another small WNW for Saturday with size bumping up just a hair into the waist high range.  Things back down for Sunday…with thigh high but slightly cleaner surf.  Monday kicks off a little WNW starting to fill in later in the day.  Surf starts off pretty small…ankle high but bumps up to waist or so by the evening.  Swell fills in a bit Tuesday and Wed with waist/chest high waves.  Depending on which model you look at there’s a chance of showers next week or it will be gorgeous and sunny during this time…will have to update in a few days and see how the models look then.  Looks like the swell peaks late Wed and into Thurs and then the swell making storms get pretty quiet for awhile. 

The good news is that the window has opened for much needed rain. Even though we’re not excited to surf in poopy water we REALLY need this rain.  We had a good dose tonight so I’d be wary of where you hop in the water Friday.  Winds look to be onshore all night so it might just be a good morning to sleep in or get to the office early.  Slight chance of showers early Friday morning but then clearing and mostly sunny all weekend.  Still some cooler air temps in the low 60s during the day along the coast but potentially warming up for next week.  Some models are calling for a chance of showers…some are calling for rain.  The jet stream is sending more storm activity our way so it just depends on if the small high pressure system that’s sitting out there pushes it north of us or if it relaxes and lets the storm roll into us.

So, a bit more weather and cooler air temps but there’s still some fun surf out there…just watch out for that poopy water and…

…stay wet San Diego!

Tides for La Jolla (Scripps Institution Wharf) starting with February 7, 2014.

Day        High      Tide  Height   Sunrise    Moon  Time      % Moon
           /Low      Time    Feet    Sunset                    Visible
F    7     High   3:18 AM     4.5   6:39 AM     Set 12:57 AM      50
     7      Low  10:58 AM     0.8   5:27 PM    Rise 11:45 AM
     7     High   5:36 PM     2.9
     7      Low   9:45 PM     2.2
Sa   8     High   4:29 AM     4.6   6:39 AM     Set  1:51 AM      60
     8      Low  12:03 PM     0.4   5:28 PM    Rise 12:31 PM
     8     High   6:45 PM     3.1
     8      Low  11:03 PM     2.2
Su   9     High   5:28 AM     4.8   6:38 AM     Set  2:41 AM      69
     9      Low  12:47 PM     0.1   5:29 PM    Rise  1:18 PM
     9     High   7:24 PM     3.3
     9      Low  11:59 PM     2.0
M   10     High   6:14 AM     5.0   6:37 AM     Set  3:28 AM      78
    10      Low   1:21 PM    -0.2   5:30 PM    Rise  2:08 PM
    10     High   7:51 PM     3.6
Tu  11      Low  12:41 AM     1.8   6:36 AM     Set  4:12 AM      85
    11     High   6:52 AM     5.2   5:31 PM    Rise  2:59 PM
    11      Low   1:49 PM    -0.4
    11     High   8:14 PM     3.8